By PRFSU Writers 2023-2024 
Nick Ilvento
Around the world, weapon supply stores, target ranges, and even militaries are facing ammo shortages due to the exponential increase in demand for ammunition. The ammunition industry has continued to be impacted by supply chain challenges brought on initially by the Covid-19 pandemic; it seems the ammunition industry will be recuperating for a while. Many factors have contributed to the Global Ammo Shortage including, the war in Ukraine, a global increase in demand to own a rifle due to rising political tensions, and increased interest in shooting for sport. Furthermore, the primary material in bullets, copper, is in short supply due to “increasingly challenging supply streams in South America and higher demand pressures.” This shortage dramatically impacts the production of ammunition while simultaneously raising the price. While the consequences of this global ammo shortage are felt worldwide, it is an ever-growing concern in the Russo-Ukrainian War on both sides. As a result, Russia and Ukraine are seeking outside support to ensure they have the resources to continue fighting.
The war in Ukraine exceeded initial expectations regarding both the length of the war and the subsequent amount of ammunition needed. According to the Pentagon, “Ukraine is burning through ammunition faster than the US and NATO can produce it.” This poses a major problem as Ukraine needs more ammunition and skilled soldiers as the casualty rate increases daily. One of the United States’ top ammunition plants, the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant, produces 11,000 artillery shells monthly. However, the Ukrainian military shoots that supply of shells in only a few days.
The concern for the United States and NATO is not small-arms munitions, as the United States produces about “8.6 billion rounds a year of small-arms munitions.” The concern is that the production of larger artillery shells require more copper and are produced at significantly lower rates than small-arms munitions. With the war in Ukraine reaching a standstill on the frontlines, artillery matters more than ever. Artillery is the most crucial weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian War. It is more reliable than aircraft which can be shot down by modern anti-aircraft systems, needs clear weather conditions to operate, and “relies on nearby airbases vulnerable to bombardment.”
Furthermore, artillery has been and continues to be used to disrupt enemy fortifications, dig-ins, and incoming infantry attacks, forcing the enemy to move their position. Without artillery, both sides could be stuck in place, creating a standstill and prolonging the war indefinitely. The United States and NATO plan to combat this artillery shell shortage by providing more funding to ammunition plants and defense budgets and rationing artillery shells only to be fired at “high-priority targets.” There are also worries surrounding the high consumption of ammunition resources in Ukraine in light of Taiwan and the Korean peninsula becoming increasingly heated.
Russia is not immune to the ammo shortage experienced across the globe, especially with the heavy sanctions enacted by Europe and the United States to protest the war in Ukraine. However, Russia may not need the “West” to supply its war effort. Barnaul Cartridge Plant is a Russian “manufacturer of industrial goods and ammunition” and is also one of the largest sources of 7.62 ammo commonly used in AK-47s and SKS-type rifles. With many Western nations sanctioning Russian imports, Barnaul-type ammunition became a limited supply to the West and Ukraine. However, while Russia is covered in the small-arms manufacturing industry, they do face the same issue of an artillery shell shortage. According to the UK’s Defense of Minister, “Russian ammunition shortages have in recent weeks worsened to the extent that extreme rationing of artillery shells is likely in force on many parts of the front.” This has caused Russia to lose significant progress they likely did not plan for when starting the invasion, and they are looking for solutions. While Russia does not have the aid of NATO like Ukraine does, Russia is not alone as far as trade partners.
Xi Jinping visited Moscow on March 20th, 2023, to meet with Vladimir Putin. US military analysis found that the meeting will bring about the exchange of military supplies, such as artillery shells, for Chinese business and industry expansion into Russia. However, China will likely face economic sanctions by the West, like Russia already has, if found to be supporting Russia against Ukraine. This could cripple their export-based economy. Russia is also looking to other nations like North Korea and Iran for munitions. “National Security Council spokesperson, John Kirby, said Vladimir Putin would likely send food to Pyongyang in exchange [for ammo.]” While the ammo shortage impacts Russia dramatically, they may not be alone regarding trade and economic support which could threaten Ukraine and prolong the war for an unknown time.
The Russo-Ukrainian war has gone from a war intended to be a swift invasion into a far deadlier conflict with no end. What seemed like an instant Russian victory has turned into a prolonged stalemate, and there is no telling where we will be a year from now. There are four likely scenarios: Ukraine wins and maintains its sovereignty, Russia wins, and Ukraine either loses some land or loses complete sovereignty, or neither, and the status quo between Russia and Ukraine continues.
However, a continuing status quo is more likely with the current global ammo shortage. This was explored by Edward A. Kolodziej, a political science research professor at the University of Illinois, who says, “It would appear that stalemate… will be the lamentable result.” Furthermore, Kolodziej predicts that NATO may provide Ukraine with enough ammunition “to sustain a stalemate, but scarcely enough to provide Ukraine with the means to break through Russian lines.” The ammo shortage has worked in Ukraine’s favor, so far, as Russia has regressed the significant initial progress they had made into Ukrainian territory. However, the future of the war is unclear, and destruction and casualties continue to rise. With both sides receiving support in the form of ammunition, especially artillery shells, from other countries around the world, it is possible that the war could escalate to something bigger and become a more severe international issue.