By Bryce Yazdiya 
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Evan Vucci/Mark Pynes/The Patriot-News via AP/Charles Krup
With the Iowa Caucus, the first stop in the 2024 election cycle, just now weeks away, the GOP race is heating up as the candidates prepare for the opening night kickoff to the election season.
According to the Des Moines Register/NBC News, Mediacom Iowa Poll which serves as the most recent polling on the GOP race in Iowa, Donald Trump maintains a strong lead over his GOP counterparts taking 43% of the vote with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley coming in tied for second with 16%.
Compared to the same poll conducted in mid August of 2023, Donald Trump has managed to obtain an extra 1% of the vote, up from 42% in August, while Ron DeSantis dropped several percentage points previously holding 19% of the vote. The biggest mover though is Nikki Haley who in August had only garnered 6% of the vote.
Despite Donald Trump’s gargantuan lead over his GOP rivals, many of the participants in the poll still suggest they are considering Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley with 27% of likely caucus goers picking DeSantis as their second choice and 17% picking Nikki Haley respectively.
Furthermore, an additional 25% of polled residents state they are actively considering voting for Ron DeSantis with 22% of polled residents saying they would consider voting for Nikki Haley as well.
Only 41% of caucus goers say their mind is made up on who they will vote for in the GOP primary, which only adds to the notion that many Iowa voters are still undecided on who they will vote for.
These results from both the mid August and late October polling continue a trend for the GOP candidates dating back to even before the August poll. In early July Donald Trump carried roughly 47% of the vote on average amongst all GOP primary polls in Iowa with DeSantis taking 20% and Nikki Haley with 3% respectively.
While Donald Trump continues to remain stagnant, DeSantis has dropped from holding 20% of the vote on average, in July, to 19% ,in mid August, to, now, 16% based on the most recent polling. Nikki Haley on the other hand has jumped from 3% on average, in early July, to 6%, in mid August, to, now, 16% according to the most recent polling.
Looking at these trends over the last several months, and considering there are roughly 6 weeks until the Iowa caucus, these data points suggest there could be drastic differences on election day voting results compared to what the first place votes in the recent polls show.
Winning the Iowa caucus is no sure fire path to secure the party nomination as only 56% of the caucus winners tend to secure the nomination with only a measly 17% actually managing to win the presidency. Having said this, the Iowa caucus still serves as an important measuring stick for the candidates as it reveals which candidates have “momentum — who does well, who doesn’t and who beats expectations”. These factors will help determine which candidates still see a feasible path to the nomination.