By Ajay Kumar 
Photo Credit: Trevor Bexon/Shutterstock
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is behind us. Donald Trump has secured a second, non-consecutive term in the White House, defeating Kamala Harris in a closely contested election. Exit polls indicate that Trump expanded his support among racial and ethnic minority voters. This article explores how these shifts occurred and examines whether they signal a lasting trend in U.S. politics.
The Republican Party has consistently drawn strong support from non-Hispanic white voters. In 2024, Trump maintained 57% support among this demographic, similar to his 58% in 2020 and 57% in 2016.
The nation’s demographics have shifted significantly. Census data shows that the non-Hispanic white population decreased from 69.1% in 2000 to 57.8% in 2020, with projections indicating they will become a minority by the 2040s. The implications of this shift on voting patterns have become increasingly significant.
While minority voters have traditionally favored Democrats—with 71% supporting Joe Biden in 2020—the 2024 election saw a notable shift. Trump increased his share of Latino voters from 32% in 2020 to 46% in 2024, including a 12-point lead among Latino men, marking the first time a Republican carried this group in exit polling history. His support among Asian American voters rose to 39%, up from 34% in 2020, while his gains among Black voters were more modest.
Recognizing challenges with minority voters after the 2018 midterms and 2020 election, the Republican National Committee (RNC) intensified outreach efforts. These included opening community centers in battleground states to assist immigrant communities with citizenship tests and promoting the “American Dream” narrative. By 2022, these initiatives showed results, with Latino, Asian, and Black voter support for Republicans increasing by 10, 17, and 4 points, respectively, compared to 2018.
The reasons behind these shifts are complex. Minority voters are not a monolith; subgroups often prioritize different issues. For example, Mexican Americans may focus on immigration, while Cuban Americans may view it differently due to their asylum history. A common concern across Latino communities, however, was the economy. Discontent with inflation and economic struggles drove many Latino voters toward Trump, as reflected in exit polls showing that 46% of Latino voters believed their financial situation had worsened over the past four years.
Similarly, economic concerns resonated with Asian American voters. Many expressed dissatisfaction with inflation, viewing Trump as better equipped to address these challenges. Polling data suggested that these concerns contributed significantly to their decisions.
Whether these shifts represent a temporary phenomenon or a lasting realignment remains unclear. Economic dissatisfaction often influences elections across demographics. For instance, Republicans suffered significant losses during the Great Recession in 2008.
Republicans continue to face challenges on issues like immigration. Policies such as mass deportations, if implemented, could alienate newly supportive minority groups. On the other hand, cultural and religious factors—such as growing evangelicalism among Latinos—might help Republicans retain or expand their support.