By Samuel Valenti 
Photo Credits: Alon Skuy / Getty
The presidential race is tightening across the country in the final days of the 2024 election. In Florida, new polling suggests a more decisive lead for the Trump campaign. The Times/Siena poll gives Trump a +13% margin over Harris, more than double the results of eleven previous polls. The difference is due to pollsters using a controversial method described as “weighting by recall vote.”
The method asks respondents whom they voted for in the 2020 election. The pollster then prescribes a “weight” to the respective groups, Trump ‘20 and Biden ‘20 voters, which reflects how a specific area voted in the previous election. In the 2024 cycle, pollsters have increasingly relied on this method to avoid repeating the errors of the 2016 and 2020 cycles. In the past month, about two-thirds of polls have utilized this method.
While pollsters’ fears may be genuine, they may be making an error. They are betting on an electorate that has largely remained unchanged the same since the 2020 election. The Florida electorate, however, has been anything but stationary. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans won across the state, and Governor Ron DeSantis became the first Republican governor to win Miami-Dade County in 20 years. These results can be attributed to a political realignment within Florida.
Republican voter registration in the state has increased since 2020. The party added 236,741 new members in four years and now surpasses the Democratic Party by nearly a million registered voters. The influx of Republicans is seen mainly as a response to DeSantis’ pandemic restriction stances. Between 2020 and 2021, around 667 people moved into Florida every day. Many of these new constituents were Republicans leaving cities run by Democratic governors who had enforced strict COVID-19 shutdowns.
The surge in registered Republicans coincides with a trend among Florida’s Hispanic population. Latino voters are a significant and unique demographic within the Florida electorate. They make up about one-fourth of Florida’s population and trend differently from the stereotypical Latino voter. While only 4% of the US population is Cuban, 68% of Cubans in the United States live in Florida. This means about 16% of Hispanic voters in Florida are Cuban. Moreover, the average Cuban American is older and tends to lean more conservative compared to most Latinos. This explains significant Republican wins in previously Democratic strongholds like Miami-Dade County.
In response to these Republican advantages going into the ‘24 election, Nikki Fried, chair of the Democratic Party of Florida, looks to ballot initiatives to shore up support. Constitutional Amendments Three and Four would legalize marijuana for recreational use and enshrine abortion rights, respectively. Nikki Fried hopes that these measures can unite Democrats and Independents against Republicans. That said, state Democrats attempting to unseat any Republican legislator face an uphill battle; they are likely to be outspent and have registration numbers working against them.
The Times/Siena poll, which, using 2024 registration data, predicts a Trump +13% victory in Florida, provides critical information. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns will likely examine every poll available in the election’s final days to evaluate and reevaluate their path to the White House. Polling demonstrates what each party must do to secure votes from groups essential to building their winning coalition. This includes what states each candidate must win to reach the 270-vote mark in the Electoral College.
Florida was previously a make-or-break state for politicians seeking the highest office. Its thirty electoral college votes and unique electorate attracted both parties. After its decisive role in the 2000 election, it was considered a swing state and a bellwether for the nation. In fact, since 1996, every candidate who won Florida has gone on to triumph in the national election. This changed in 2020 when Florida went to Donald Trump and he did not obtain reelection. Florida is not swinging like it used to.
The Trump campaign can likely count on Florida’s thirty electoral votes on their path to the White House, especially since Florida is no longer a competitive state. Campaign spending in the state makes it clear that neither candidate sees Florida as a battleground. Both campaigns spent about 1.4 million dollars in the state, a stark decrease from the 55 million dollars spent in 2016 and 177 million dollars in 2020. In Florida’s 2024 election, both candidates have been outspent by outside groups promoting ballot initiatives instead of focusing on candidates.
Donald Trump’s approach to Florida in the final days before the election will likely stay the same. He may be able to receive huge returns by spending very little. However, interpreting the 13-point lead as good news for the former President may be a mistake; it’s more like an affirmation of the status quo. The campaigns’ only goal in these final days will likely be to move the margin in swing states, not in Florida. If the Trump campaign spends time and money in Florida, it may only increase its odds of winning the popular vote.
Trump’s lead in Florida will not decide the election. Instead, it tells a more straightforward story: Florida’s fall from a political pedestal.