By Thomas Weber 
By Thomas Weber
Marta Lavandier/AP Photo
Donald Trump addresses supporters at a rally in Doral, Florida on July 9, 2024.
The boost of energy behind the Democratic presidential ticket since Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s presumptive nominee is evident in polling. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average of the national popular vote, Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47%-44.4% margin. This contrasts President Biden’s 43.5%-40.2% deficit in national popular vote polling when he suspended his presidential bid on July 21.
As Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, work to brand their newly nominated ticket as the “joyful warriors” of the 2024 campaign, there is evidence that some Sun Belt states are trending to her side. Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arizona are generally recognized as the key Sun Belt battlegrounds of the 2024 cycle, but Florida has attracted some attention as of late.
Although Florida was considered a core battleground state until 2020, the last Democratic presidential victory in the state was Barack Obama’s 73,189 vote win in 2012, and the last Democratic gubernatorial victory was Lawton Chiles’ win in 1994. When Donald Trump defeated Joe Biden in Florida by 3.3 percentage points in 2020, one county stood out as an indicator that the state was trending increasingly to the right. Populous Miami-Dade County, which had been known as a Democratic stronghold, voted for Biden by only 7.3 points, even though it voted for Hillary Clinton by 29.6 points in 2016.
Since 2020, Florida Republicans have turned a 97,000 voter registration disadvantage into an advantage of one million voters. The first election after the party started this registration push was in 2022 when Republican Governor Ron DeSantis won reelection by a record-setting margin. DeSantis defeated former Governor Charlie Crist by 19.4 percentage points, winning all but five counties. One county that was in DeSantis’ column was Miami-Dade, which he won by 11.3 points. Before DeSantis, the most recent Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Miami-Dade County was Jeb Bush in 2002.
These events over the past few years have caused Florida to fall on the list of presidential battlegrounds. According to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast of Florida’s presidential race, Donald Trump won the state 71 times out of 100. The Cook Political Report rates Florida as “Likely R,” which describes states that are “not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.”
Despite the skepticism of prominent forecasts, Florida Democrats see a path to victory in 2024. Trump currently leads Harris by 4.2 points in the FiveThirtyEight polling average for Florida, which is significantly closer than his 8.8 point lead on the day that Joe Biden dropped out. Democrats hope to take advantage of the energy behind Amendment 4, a ballot measure that if approved would protect abortion access until fetal viability in the state constitution. Although Trump has criticized Florida’s current abortion restrictions, he has confirmed that he plans to vote against the ballot initiative in November. Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison, who recently traveled to Florida to campaign in support of Harris and Amendment 4, declared that Democrats “can’t give up on Florida,” but acknowledged that fundraising in the state might be difficult as donors consider the party’s recent struggles “to kind of judge” their spending. Despite Harrison’s talk of paying attention to Florida, POLITICO’s Kimberly Leonard reported on September 5 that there is “no serious ad spending here from either party.” Trump spent $48,000 on advertisements in the West Palm Beach media market, which is a small fraction of the millions that have been spent by his campaign and aligned super PACs.
Florida might not be the perennial battleground that it once was, but it is not entirely obsolete in the 2024 campaign. Specific issues are highlighted in Amendment 4 and another ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana, and the nation’s richest U.S. Senator, Republican Rick Scott, faces his first reelection attempt. According to a poll by Emerson College, Scott holds a 46%-45% lead over Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, an Ecuadorian-born former congresswoman from Miami-Dade County. There is plenty of activity in Florida politics this year, and the state’s presidential vote could become an affirmation of Republican dominance or a reawakening for exhausted Democrats.