By Andres Fernandez 
Photo Credit: Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela July 29, 2024 (Reuters).
On Sunday, July 28th, a presidential election occurred in Venezuela. Despite the existence of an array of narratives that explain why Venezuela’s democracy has been in decay for more than 30 years, it is most important to understand the context of what has been occurring since 2013.
On Mar. 13th, 2013, former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez died in a Cuban hospital due to complications related to late-stage cancer. His death triggered national elections and his vice-president, Nicolas Maduro, quickly wielded the president’s base of national support and ran for the presidential election on April 14th. Despite enjoying a broad base of support until the early 2010s, it was clear to both Chavez’s party, the PSUV, and the international community that the government’s popularity in some sectors of the country stemmed from Chavez’s, and that without his presence in the movement, it was more than likely that the PSUV would not maintain its appeal in the Latin American country. In 2011, Gallup Polling revealed that while just over half of the country approved of Chávez’s leadership, more than 68% of the population believed that his party, and therefore government, were corrupt. Combine this with the unpopularity of some of Chavez’s policy measures, such as the accumulation of presidential power, oppression of political opposition, elimination of private news companies, and incarceration of journalists, and Maduro was not the favorite to win the 2013 election.
On the eve of the 2013 election, the president of Venezuela’s National Election Council, or CNE, came out and addressed the country on national television declaring Nicolas Maduro the winner, by a small margin of 1.4%, of the presidential election. The CNE works as a fourth branch of government in Venezuela. It monitors, opens, and closes voting stations, and counts the votes. CNE oversaw the transition to electronic voting in the early 2000s, declaring the winner after the votes are counted. The government body was established during Chavez’s presidency and most officials in it were and still are members of the PSUV, Maduro’s party. For example, in 2023 when 7 members resigned, only two were linked to the opposition. After this election, the opposition claimed fraudulent actions by the CNE and requested an independent recount of the votes be issued to ensure no manipulation occurred. After the government’s refusal, protests ensued.
The domestic and international pressure that has mounted on Maduro’s regime to allow for a democratic transition of power have led the Venezuelan government to not adjust their enacted policies. It was during these years that, due to the falsification of election results, Venezuela endured some of the most significant democratic backsliding experienced by any country in the Western Hemisphere. International Organization like Freedom House have determined Venezuela to be “non-democratic” in 2023, despite still considering it partly democratic in 2013.
Following the 2013 election in Venezuela, the country experienced a series of crises characterized by extreme shortages of food, medicine, and basic hygienic products, which resulted in mass starvation. In 2014, inflation surged to a rate of 56%. This turmoil sparked student protests that year, leading to 43 deaths and approximately 4,000 arrests. As political persecution intensified, over 5.5 million people emigrated in search of safety. Additionally, more than 1,400 opposition politicians were barred from participating in elections. In defiance of the opposition’s victory in the 2017 legislative elections, President Nicolás Maduro established a new legislative body loyal to his government, cementing his power. Subsequent protests in 2017 resulted in over 30 additional deaths as the government continued to reject calls for a change in leadership. By 2023, Venezuela’s inflation had skyrocketed to an astonishing 130,000%. Despite having a 27% approval rating, Maduro called for a presidential election in 2018, claiming a victory with 70% of the votes. Since 2013, the government has been responsible for more than 15,000 politically motivated arrests, further illustrating the ongoing political repression and instability in the country.
As Venezuela entered 2020 and faced the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the prevailing conditions and the mass exodus of citizens had collectively shaped a grim acceptance of the country’s dire state. In this environment, Venezuelans resumed their daily routines amidst a landscape where opposition leaders were either deceased, imprisoned, or exiled.
A prominent example is Leopoldo López, who played a significant role in leading opposition protests in 2015 before being imprisoned shortly thereafter. According to The BBC, there was some economic improvement in 2022, with inflation falling down by over 300% points. However, the poorest Venezuelan still did not reap the benefits of these economic improvements.
In aiming to reduce economic sanctions on Venezuelan industry and high-ranking government officials, the Maduro regime opened negotiations in Barbados with the opposition to hold democratic & competitive elections in 2024. The negotiations took place in October of 2023, and they concluded with President Maduro calling for an election on the 28th of July 2024. When it became official that elections would be held, the opposition rapidly and concisely consolidated behind 56-year-old Maria Corina Machado. The former congressperson has always been a loud and aggressive advocate for the opposition. She became known in Venezuela for her firm stances against Chavez’s policies and represents the most ideologically anti-Maduro faction of the opposition coalition. When the opposition primaries were held, she won with 93% of the vote.
After officially launching her campaign on the 23rd of January 2024, she spent months traveling the country, speaking to opposition forces and working-class Venezuelans alike in massive events whilst fighting for the right to run for office in the court system. On multiple occasions, the Regime did everything they could to impede her ability to campaign, from closing hotels in cities where she announced she was going to visit to blocking highways, to slow down her movement through the country. Still, she spent months building a movement to challenge Maduro’s government during the July elections.
Early into 2024, The Venezuelan Supreme Court issued an opinion alleging she had been involved in corruption with previous opposition leaders and therefore would remain barred from running for the next 15 years. This opinion also barred other mainstream opposition figures, like Capriles Radonski, making it harder for the opposition to find a popular candidate to replace Maria Corina. However, Maria Corina kept campaigning whilst the opposition looked at viable alternative options to run as their candidate. Originally, she was replaced by 80-year-old professor and philosopher, Corina Yoris, but soon after the opposition confirmed her as the replacement in March of 2024, the government blocked her access to the registration center, leading to the opposition to miss the deadline for registration and once more lose their candidate. Soon after, The MUD swiftly nominated Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old retired diplomat, to be the legal ballot of the campaign whilst Maria Corina continued being the voice and main force behind the movement. This time, the opposition succeeded in meeting the deadline for registration and Maria Corina kept campaigning for Edmundo as election day approached.
With all that in mind we come back to where we started.
This past Sunday, July 28th, a presidential election took place in Venezuela. During the day, U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, claimed there were concerns that voting manipulation was occurring. Exit polls conducted by institutions, such as Edison Research, showed the opposition candidate, Edmundo, dominating the election with a commanding lead of over 60% of the votes. The results were supposed to come out at 11:00 p.m., however, they were delayed for an hour. The government’s attorney general claimed it was due to a cyberattack coming from North Macedonia. When The CNE came out at 12 a.m. to read the results of the election on national television, they declared Maduro the winner. In an official announcement, Maduro was determined to have obtained 51.1% of the votes while Edmundo allegedly only obtained 44%. During the announcement, the CNE President also condemned the acts of violence that occurred during the day, which they argued was started by opposition voters.
At 2:28 a.m. on Monday, July 29th, the opposition demanded the electoral authorities presented all the voting tallies issued by the voting machines to verify the results. They stated if the tally sheets from each voting center were presented to the public it would be apparent that the government did not win the election. On her part, Maria Corina took to social media and claimed, “Our struggle continues, and we will not rest until the will of the Venezuelan people is respected.” The blows continued to reach Maduro’s government throughout the day. The governments of Chile, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, and The United States have all denounced or refused to recognize Maduro’s victory. The outrage has been so severe, that scrutiny is even coming from previously left-wing allies of Maduro’s regime like Colombia’s Gustavo Petro.
Throughout Monday, the sound of banging pots and pans covered the atmosphere in all major metropolitan areas of the nation. According to CNN, dozens of national guard soldiers were seen in riot gear repressing the protests with tear gas and batons. One protester was captured on video surrounded by a group of uniformed officers, who were slapping him on the head while holding him under an overpass. It was not until around 7 p.m. when opposition leader, Maria Corina, came out on a televised announcement with major news.
In her announcement, the former congresswoman, in company of Edmundo Gonzalez, explained they had been working hard to collect the tallies from voting stations and had stockpiled around 81% of the official results showing Edmundo’s resounding victory of 7.1 million votes to Maduro’s 3.2 million. She declared Edmundo the just winner of the contest and called on the government and the international community to accept the results. She explained they will continue to work hard to come into possession of 100% of the tallies and give the Venezuelan people an official result to show proof of their victory.
She called for the armed forces to respect the popular will and not turn on the Venezuelan people as they protest and continue to demand the official results of the election be respected. As of July 30, 2024, protests, violence, and demonstrations persist in Venezuela and as of 7:42 p.m. the government has ordered the arrest of Maria Corina, further increasing political tensions. In response, Maria Corina took to social media claiming that although she was flattered by the offers of political Asylum in Costa Rica, she was staying in Venezuela and fighting for democracy until the end.