By Elias Barcena Photo Credit: Fred Schilling, Collection of the Supreme Court of the United States
The main issues swaying voters in the 2024 Presidential Election, according to a poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, are reported to be the economy, the future of democracy in the United States, and government spending, respectively. While voters are concerned with other issues, such as border security and abortion rights, the potential role of the Supreme Court in the 2024 presidential election may also be an important factor, as the next president may have the responsibility of adding new justices to the Court which could have an impact on its judicial ideology.
The Roberts Court, pictured above, is seen by some to be the most conservative court in the last 90 years, as reported by Nina Totenberg, the head legal correspondent of NPR. Many claim the shift in ideology began in 2016, when President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland was blocked by Senate Republicans, after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said that “the American people should have a say in the court’s direction.” McConnell was referring to the upcoming presidential election, alluding to the argument that the next president should make the appointment rather than President Obama since his term was nearly over. As a result, Garland’s nomination was never heard on the Senate floor. After the 2016 election, President Trump nominated Neil Gorsuch to the same open position. The retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy and the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg further allowed President Trump the opportunity to nominate two more justices, Justice Brett Kavanaugh and Justice Amy Coney Barrett. As a result, the current makeup of justices on the Supreme Court stands as 6 justices appointed under Republican presidents (Alito, Barrett, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Roberts, and Thomas) to 3 justices appointed under Democratic presidents (Jackson, Kagan, and Sotomayor).
In recent years, the United States Supreme Court has handed out several major decisions, which include but are not limited to:
- Kennedy v. Bremerton School District (2022): The court ruled in a 6-3 decision that the government may not suppress an individual’s right to engage in personal religious observance, upholding the right of a former high school football coach Joe Kennedy to hold a private prayer immediately after football games.
- Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022): The court ruled the Constitution does not confer a right to abortion through privacy, thus leaving the jurisdiction over abortion to the states.
- West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency (2022): The court ruled in a 6-3 decision that the E.P.A. only has limited authority to set caps on carbon emissions.
- Fair Admission v. Harvard (2023): The court ruled by a 6-2 decision (Justice Jackson recused herself since she attended Harvard University) that race-based affirmative action policies violate the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment.
While each of these aforementioned cases are seen as landmark decisions, the overturning of Roe v. Wade through Dobbs v. Jackson is seen by many Americans as the most important. Abortion is a topic at the forefront of the 2024 presidential election, with a recent Wall Street Journal poll naming the topic as the number one issue to suburban female voters in swing states. On the other hand, President Trump said he was “honored” with his role in overturning Roe v. Wade, in a June 1st town hall with CNN. As a result, the Dobbs ruling is a central point of both candidates’ campaigns.
In another landmark decision, the Supreme Court determined through a unanimous ruling in Trump v. Anderson that states cannot determine election eligibility for federal office by using the insurrectionist clause of the 14th Amendment, overturning the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Trump from the 2024 ballot. In the final argument of the 2023-2024 Supreme Court term, which was heard on Thursday, April 25, justices considered the question on whether a president enjoys absolute immunity for official acts while in office, which is directly tied to Special Counsel Jack Smith’s case against Trump relating to his alleged role in trying to overturn the 2020 election. Both of these cases may have a profound impact on the 2024 election, with a potential indictment seen to have a significant damaging effect on Trump’s ability to attract swing voters. A recent poll released by University of North Florida shows Trump could lose around 9% of his current voters if he is found convicted of a crime.
Despite the fact that four out of the nine justices on the Roberts court have been confirmed within the last two presidential terms, a Pew Research poll found that a majority of Americans also have age-related concerns regarding some of the justices currently sitting on the nation’s highest court. Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito (ages 75 and 74, respectively) are the most senior members of the court, and many pundits are predicting that the winner of the 2024 presidential election will possibly have the responsibility of choosing their successors should they retire. This may be a key factor for voters in the upcoming presidential election.
The impact of the Court affects many Americans, so the fact that there is a strong majority of justices appointed under Republican presidents has political significance. An example of this political influence is the claim made by Justice Thomas in the Dobbs decision that the Supreme Court should revisit “Griswold, Lawrence, and Obergfell,” implying that he would support giving states the ability to make their own decsions relating to contraception access, and same-sex marriage and relationships. If any of these cases were revisited and overturned in the future, they would affect millions of Americans. Consequently, the Supreme Court will play an important role in the 2024 presidential election for a multitude of reasons and could have a major impact on the presidency itself based on the current case about absolute immunity for office-holding presidents.