By Thomas Weber 
By: Thomas Weber, staff writer
Photo Credit: Jim Vondruska/Getty Images
Continuing from a December article about four notable U.S. House primary elections, here are four more primaries to watch as the 2024 elections take shape.
Illinois’ 12th District GOP Primary
Republican Representative Mike Bost has had a streak of uncompetitive elections since his first U.S. House race in 2014. In four out of five Republican primaries for Illinois’ rural southern 12th district, Bost ran unopposed, with the one exception being an 83.5%-16.5% margin against challenger Preston Nelson in 2018. During redistricting in 2022, Bost’s southern Illinois district was redrawn to include more heavily Republican rural counties, replacing Democratic-leaning communities in St. Clair County. Bost accomplished his largest congressional general election margin to date in 2022, defeating Democrat Homer Markel by a 75%-25% difference.
In 2024, Bost will face former state Senator, and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, Darren Bailey in the 2024 12th district Republican primary. Bailey’s 2022 campaign for Illinois Governor garnered statewide and national attention from the left and right. Bailey’s campaign was endorsed by former President Donald Trump and funded by millions of dollars from Republican donor Richard Uihlein, while one of his Republican primary rivals, Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin, was heavily funded by another prominent Republican donor, billionaire Ken Griffin. Beyond Republican spenders, the Democratic Governors Association and Democratic Governor JB Pritzker spent millions to oppose Bailey in the primary, although some question the motives of those efforts. POLITICO’s Shia Kapos dives into the Democratic advertising against Bailey, which she labels as “reverse psychology.” According to Kapos, Pritzker preferred to face the conservative Bailey over the moderate Irvin, viewing Bailey as “a candidate he could easily beat.” Kapos suggests that Pritzker and the DGA “rallied conservative voters” in the primary to support Bailey by running advertisements that discussed Bailey’s conservative record.
When votes were counted in the 2022 race between Bailey and Pritzker, the results reinforced Illinois’ blue-leaning record. Although Bailey’s 12.5 percentage point defeat was closer than former Republican Governor Bruce Rauner’s 15.7 point deficit against Pritzker in 2018, it did little to impact Illinois’ political reputation.
Like Bailey, Bost has been supported by Trump in the past. In 2018, Bost faced Democrat Brendan Kelly in his toughest general election since entering Congress. Trump endorsed Bost and held a rally in the congressman’s hometown of Murphysboro to offer his support on the campaign trail. Bailey and Bost have both endorsed Trump’s 2024 campaign for president, but the former president has not weighed in between the two.
A poll released in July by Cor Strategies provides the first glimpse into how 12th district Republicans are weighing the race between Bost and Bailey. The poll, which was conducted the day after Bailey’s campaign announcement, found Bost leading Bailey by a 43%-37% margin, with 21% undecided. The results of this poll are more competitive than almost all of Bost’s primary and general election results since entering Congress, with his 51.6%-45.4% result against Kelly in 2018 being the exception. The attention garnered by Bailey in the 2022 campaign might have an impact on these numbers. The poll found 70% name recognition for Bailey among Republican primary voters, compared with Bost’s 61% name recognition. Although it is rare for challengers to have higher recognition than an incumbent, Cor Strategies founder Collin Corbett explains that the position offers Bost more “space to grow.” The poll also found a regional divide in the race, as Bost leads in the southern counties of the district which are closer to Murphysboro, and Bailey leads further north near his hometown of Xenia. Reflecting on the poll results, Corbett predicted “this is going to be a neck-and-neck race, this will be a dogfight all the way through Election Day.”
Bost campaign manager Myles Nelson expressed that the Bost team is “happy with where we’re at,” while echoing Kapos by describing Bailey as “a candidate who JB Pritzker spent $30 million supporting in an effort to convince Illinois Republicans to vote for him just last year.” Bost’s top endorsements come from House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-4), Representative Jim Jordan (OH-4), Representative Ronny Jackson (TX-13), Representative Byron Donalds (FL-19), and the anti-abortion/pro-life National Right to Life organization. Meanwhile, Bailey expects that his primary campaign will reveal “if southern Illinois thinks Mike Bost has been fighting for them hard enough,” adding, “I think I have proven…that I will fight and stand up for the people.” Bailey has been endorsed by Representative Mary Miller (IL-15), a member of the House Freedom Caucus who served the eastern portion of the 12th district before redistricting. Now, Miller represents rural counties in central Illinois, in a seat that she won in 2022 over another Republican incumbent. Bost endorsed that incumbent, then-Representative Rodney Davis, over Miller in the 2022 primary. Following Miller’s endorsement, Representative Matt Gaetz (FL-1), another outspoken conservative, wrote “Bailey > Bost,” claiming that Miller’s endorsement will be taken “very seriously” in the primary.
Despite conflicting rhetoric, both candidates support similar platforms on their websites. The websites of both Bost and Bailey discuss border security, energy independence, support for gun rights, and opposition to abortion. As of the September 30 FEC filings, Bost’s campaign had $1,173,038.12 on hand after starting 2023 with $389,871.13. Bailey’s campaign, which registered with the FEC on July 4, reported $107,706.24 on hand by September 30, although the end-of-year report might show a fuller picture. Even so, Bailey is familiar with fundraising disadvantages. In the 2022 gubernatorial primary, Irvin’s campaign raked in $50 million from Griffin, while Bailey’s campaign built a grassroots following with small donations. Eventually, Bailey was boosted by $17 million from Uihlein, as well as attention from Democratic Governors Association advertisements and Trump’s endorsement. In the general election, Pritzker, a billionaire, funded his campaign with ease, as well as the campaigns of other Democratic candidates.
Minnesota’s 5th District Democratic Primary
As tensions increase in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, some Republicans have raised criticism of progressive congressional members with a history of Palestinian support. In one video released by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) in November, the statement, “extreme House Democrats’ words promoted hate” precedes clips of progressive lawmakers such as Representatives Ilhan Omar (MN-5), Pramila Jayapal (WA-7), and Rashida Tlaib (MI-12).
Regarding Omar, Republican Congressmen are not alone in their concerns over the congresswoman’s politics. In 2022, Omar was challenged by former Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels in Minnesota’s 5th congressional district Democratic primary. On policy, Samuels critiqued Omar’s use of the “defund the police” slogan, saying that it “created unnecessary alienation at a time when progress on police accountability was most needed.” Samuels also found issue with Omar’s opposition to her party’s infrastructure legislation, saying that the congresswoman’s stance was “quite literally ‘my way or the highway,’ a position that fails to recognize the tremendous infrastructural needs of our community.” Omar narrowly defeated Samuels in the primary by a 50.3%-48.2% margin. After the marginal loss, Samuels said that his campaign “sends a message to the incumbent that her work needs serious help.”
Samuels is challenging Omar again in 2024, insisting that the incumbent is “beatable” and “hasn’t helped herself.” Regarding Israel, Samuels alleged that Omar has “frightened the Jewish community,” citing the congresswoman’s support for sanctions against Israel and her decision to boycott a speech to Congress by Israeli President Isaac Herzog. Another candidate challenging Omar in 2024 is Attorney Sarah Gad. Gad’s campaign announcement video discusses her experience with imprisonment after an opioid overdose, which followed a car accident. In her video, Gad mentions her “Muslim faith,” which she explains reveals the need for “more people in Congress who have seen the goodness that is possible.” Like Samuels, Gad has expressed concern over Omar’s use of the “defund the police” slogan and boycott of Herzog’s speech. POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu reports that Samuels and Gad have “promised each other that one would drop their bid if the other challenger’s seemed to be picking up more traction.”
In response to these challenges, Omar focuses on her progressive record, claiming, “I’ve continued to fight for the progressive values Minnesotans sent me to advocate for — whether it’s fighting to codify Roe v. Wade into law, pushing for historic climate legislation, addressing the opioid crisis or fighting for an assault weapons ban.” In this primary, Omar has the backing of Democratic U.S. Representatives Hakeem Jeffries (NY-8), Nancy Pelosi (CA-11), Katherine Clark (MA-5), Pete Aguilar (CA-33), Steny Hoyer (MD-5), and Jim Clyburn (SC-6), all of whom are current or former members of House Democratic leadership.
After filing with the FEC on July 31, Gad’s campaign reported $52,753.86 on hand by September 30. Samuels’ campaign reported only $8.84 in receipts by the same time, but his campaign had not been officially launched by then. More notably, Samuels’ campaign raised $1,431,782.94 and was supported by $625,305.00 in outside spending in the 2022 race. Omar’s campaign had $646,475.87 on hand as of September 30, with $1,578,407.34 in receipts and $983,647.62 in disbursements. Also, Omar’s Inspiring Leadership Has a Name (ILHAN) PAC reported $143,096.57 on hand as of June 30. Outside groups played a role in opposing Omar in 2022, with $127,500 spent on advertising campaigns by Law Enforcement for a Safer America PAC and Honoring American Law Enforcement PAC, both of which align more with Republican-backed policies. Also, the pro-Israel organization, AIPAC, opposed Omar with $350,000 in 2022. All of these PACs could move to oppose her again.
Ohio’s 9th District GOP Primary
Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur is currently serving her 21st term in the U.S. House, representing Ohio’s northern 9th district. She is the second-longest serving Democrat in the chamber, behind Representative Steny Hoyer (MD-5). In the most recent redistricting cycle, Kaptur’s district was redrawn to a more competitive nature. Based on the 2020 election results, Kaptur’s district voted for Joe Biden by 19.4 percentage points under the old district lines, but it voted for Donald Trump by 2.8 points under the new boundaries. Going into the 2024 election, Kaptur’s seat is listed as a target by the National Republican Congressional Committee, after the party failed to win the seat in 2022.
In the 2022 election, Republicans in Ohio’s 9th district nominated political newcomer J.R. Majewski in a competitive primary. Majewski received 35.7% of the vote to outnumber state Representative Craig Riedel’s 31% support and state Senator Theresa Gavarone’s 28.5% support. Majewski, an Air Force veteran, attracted some media attention during the 2020 presidential campaign by painting his lawn with the design of Trump’s campaign sign. Referencing the event at a rally in Delaware, Ohio days before the 2022 primary, Trump introduced Majewski to a crowd of supporters by calling the candidate a “genius.” After the primary, Trump endorsed Majewski in his campaign to oust Kaptur.
Majewski’s general election campaign was mired in controversy. In one controversy, critics highlighted Majewski’s involvement in the “Stop the Steal” rally on January 6, 2022. The event was in protest of the 2020 election results and turned violent inside of the U.S. Capitol building. Majewski confirmed that he was “responsible for 60-70 people” at the event. In a tweet, Kaptur condemned Majewski’s involvement, saying, “the men and women who defended democracy with their lives that day deserve so much more.” In response, Majewski insisted that he “committed no crimes and was cleared by the FBI.”
Later in the campaign, Majewski’s Air Force record was scrutinized in an Associated Press report by Brian Slodysko and James LaPorta. The report discusses findings in military documents suggesting that while the candidate claimed to have been deployed to Afghanistan, most of his time was spent at Kadena Air Base in Japan. The report cites that Majewski’s closest encounter with Afghanistan was for six months during 2002, during which he served as a “passenger operations specialist” in Qatar. Qatar, as the report notes, is “a longtime U.S. ally that is a safe distance from the fighting.” Majewski responded to the AP report by saying that he was “proud” of his service and that “my accomplishments and record are under attack.”
A later AP report by Slodysko and LaPorta offered deeper questions into Majewski’s military background. The report cited more military records, revealing that Majewski was demoted and barred from reenlisting in the Air Force after a drunk driving incident at Kadena Air Base in September 2001. Majewski confirmed the incident, saying “this mistake is now more than 20 years old. I’m sure we’ve all done something as young adults that we look back on and wonder ‘what was I thinking?”
On November 11, 2023, Majewski alleged in a post on X that Kaptur “colluded with the AP” and “lied about my service,” insisting that the records against him were obtained “illegally.”
In the 2022 general election, Kaptur defeated Majewski by a 56.6%-43.4% margin.
In 2024, Republican interest in Kaptur’s seat remains high, given that Trump won the 9th district in 2020. However, the primary is trending to be competitive once again with the return of the top two 2022 candidates. Majewski and Riedel have both entered the 2024 primary, where they will face former state Representative Derek Merrin and Napoleon Mayor Steve Lankenau. Riedel’s website lists endorsements from some Republican members of Congress, including Representatives Jim Jordan (OH-4), Steve Scalise (LA-1), and Tom Emmer (MN-6). In a statement released by Riedel’s campaign, Emmer described Riedel as “the candidate who will win and deliver common sense solutions to the failed policies being pushed by Marcy Kaptur and Joe Biden.” However, after Turning Point USA founder and Majewski supporter Charlie Kirk brought to light an audio recording in which Riedel calls Trump “arrogant,” Representatives Elise Stefanik (NY-21) and Max Miller (OH-7) withdrew their support of the candidate. Conservative backlash against Riedel over the recording prompted some Republican officials to search for a different candidate to “salvage their flailing prospects” in the district, as POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick puts it. House Speaker Mike Johnson (LA-4) and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson (NC-9) encouraged Merrin to join the race after the recording surfaced, hoping to block Majewski from cruising in the primary against Riedel.
In characterizing the race, Majewski posted on X, describing himself as “110% MAGA. Someone who’s battle tested, smeared, hated by the establishment.” While connecting himself to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) slogan, Majewski connected Riedel to McCarthy and 2024 presidential candidate Nikki Haley, saying “the establishment loves him.” Majewski argued that he would best represent the “blue-collar district,” rather than Riedel, “a Country Club Conservative.” Majewski’s endorsements include Senator JD Vance (OH) and Representatives Byron Donalds (FL-19), Matt Gaetz (FL-1), and Cory Mills (FL-7). In addition to Majewski, these four men have also endorsed Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race.
The September 30 FEC filings show that Riedel’s campaign had $530,856.24 on hand, while Majewski’s campaign had $9,887.58 on hand. By this time, Majewski had not entered the 2024 race. Kaptur’s campaign is ahead of both Republicans, with $1,001,684.82 on hand in addition to the congresswoman’s Truedem Leadership Fund PAC, which last reported $183,324.65 on hand.
Oregon’s 5th District Democratic Primary
Democrats in Oregon’s competitive 5th congressional district bucked Representative Kurt Schrader during the 2022 primary, despite the congressman’s endorsement from President Joe Biden. Schrader was defeated by attorney and engineer Jamie McLeod-Skinner by 8,422 votes in the Democratic primary. Oregon’s 5th, which voted for Biden by 8.9 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election, ultimately chose Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer over McLeod-Skinner in the 2022 general election by a 50.9%-48.8% margin. In her first term, Chavez-DeRemer is placed in the ideological center of the U.S House by Voteview, which rates her as more liberal than 99% of House Republicans and more liberal than 50% of the chamber’s members as a whole.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has listed Representative Chavez-DeRemer’s district as one of 33 “key strategic offensive opportunities” in the 2024 election, as Democrats look to reclaim the House of Representatives. McLeod-Skinner is running again in the Democratic primary, posing the possibility of a rematch with Chavez-DeRemer. McLeod-Skinner, in her campaign announcement, described her intent to “rise above partisan bickering” with priorities of “helping working people and small business owners make ends meet while protecting our democracy, our environment, our communities, and our fundamental rights.” According to former state legislator Jan Lee, who has endorsed McLeod-Skinner, the returning candidate has built familiarity with voters “because she shows up, listens, and understands the needs of communities large and small.” McLeod-Skinner is also endorsed by Democratic U.S. Representatives Mark Takano (CA-41), Ritchie Torres (NY-15), and Becca Balint (VT-AL).
McLeod-Skinner’s primary opposition in 2024 comes from state Representative Janelle Bynum and Metro Council President Lynn Peterson. Bynum is endorsed by a slew of Oregon’s Democratic political figures, including Governor Tina Kotek, state Treasurer Tobias Reed, and U.S. Representatives Andrea Salinas (OR-6) and Suzanne Bonamici (OR-1). In her endorsement, Kotek described Bynum as “a leader with the tenacity, compassion and commitment to deliver real results for Oregon families.” Targeting the Republican incumbent, Bynum has argued that “Republican extremists like Lori Chavez-DeRemer are incapable of governing with our community’s best interests in mind, and our district needs a change.” Peterson aligns with her primary rivals’ assessment of the current representation in Congress, saying that “ideological politicians are more intent on culture wars than helping working people, more interested in rolling back fundamental rights than protecting our small cities and rural communities.”
The regional differences in the primary are similar to that of 2022. Peterson and Bynum both reside in Clackamas County, which accounted for the district’s largest share of 2022 Democratic primary votes. Clackamas County is located in the north of the district near Multnomah County, which includes Portland. A portion of Multnomah County is also included in the 5th district. Schrader, who is likewise a resident of Clackamas County, won the county by 5.8 percentage points in the 2022 primary. Meanwhile, McLeod-Skinner resides in Bend, the largest city in Deschutes County. Deschutes County provided the second-largest share of Democratic primary votes in 2022, which McLeod-Skinner won by 41.6 percentage points. Deschutes County is located in central Oregon, filling the southern part of the fifth district.
Chavez-DeRemer’s campaign had $1,290,581.19 on hand as of the September 30 FEC filings. By comparison, McLeod-Skinner’s campaign reported $154,767.48 after registering on July 10, Bynum’s campaign reported $217,842.34 on hand after registering on June 21, and Peterson reported $43,495.31 on hand after registering on June 8.
Representative Suzan DelBene (WA-1), the chair of the DCCC, confirmed national Democrats’ commitment to this district, promising “to recruit exciting and battle-ready candidates” to run in the DCCC’s 33 “offensive opportunities.” According to DelBene, “vulnerable” Republicans like Chavez-DeRemer “enable the most dangerous wings of their party to threaten our jobs, roll back women’s freedoms, endanger Americans’ economic security, and prioritize politics over people.” As Democrats in the 5th district decide on a nominee, Chavez-DeRemer projects confidence in her campaign. The incumbent congresswoman claims, “with the bipartisan leadership that I’m showing, as a Republican member of Congress, the voters will re-elect me, I have no doubt about it because they know I’m the best fit for the seat.”
These are only some of the U.S. House primaries taking place across the United States over the coming months. As voters come closer to casting votes in these elections, the race for money, endorsements, and partisan appeal is likely to intensify. After these races are settled, the prevailing nominees’ impact on the general election can determine which party wins control of the 119th Congress.