By Thomas Weber 
By: Thomas Weber
Photo Credit: Rich Fury/Getty Images
Across red, blue, and purple districts, Republicans and Democrats are organizing primary campaigns in the 2024 race for Congress. Power in Congress is currently split, with Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate and Republicans in control of the U.S. House. Furthermore, Democrats’ narrow 51-49 Senate majority and Republicans’ narrow 222-212 House majority allow small coalitions of members to deny passage of any given bill. For example, eight House Republicans’ decision to break party ranks and side with Democrats in a successful effort to oust Representative Kevin McCarthy from the speakership demonstrated the small margin of error for the House GOP to win party-line votes. Similarly in the Senate, Democrats have at times struggled to stay above the 50-vote threshold with no GOP support. In January of 2022, Democratic Senators Kyrsten Sinema (AZ, now an independent) and Joe Manchin (WV) sided with Senate Republicans in a successful opposition against Democratic calls to abolish the filibuster. Here are some congressional primaries that may be worth watching as the 2024 campaign heats up:
Alabama’s 1st District GOP Primary
Alabama’s congressional map has been redrawn following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that required a new map to include an additional congressional district that can be decided by Black voters. With the southern 2nd district redrawn to likely be decided by its 48.7% Black population, it now has a “strong likelihood of electing Black Democrats to Congress,” according to POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Madison Fernandez.
Under Alabama’s old congressional map, six out of seven districts voted heavily for Donald Trump in the 2020 election. The 1st and 2nd districts in the southern part of the state separated majority Black communities in the region, specifically the cities of Mobile and Montgomery. The new map combines Montgomery County and the city of Mobile into the 2nd district, and it combines conservative Baldwin County and parts of Mobile County with Houston, Coffee, and Covington Counties.
The perceived Democratic advantage in the new 2nd district has led two incumbent Republican U.S. Representatives to enter the 1st district primary in 2024. Representative Barry Moore, who currently represents the 2nd district, will face Representative Jerry Carl, who currently represents the 1st district.
The event of two incumbent congressmen running for one U.S. House seat is an unusual instance that has not occurred in Alabama since 1962. Both Carl and Moore have territory from their old districts included in the new 1st district, where they will likely have an advantage in name recognition and familiarity. Baldwin County and the portion of Mobile County are remnants of Carl’s old district, while the other counties were previously served by Moore. Troy University political science professor Steven Taylor discussed the importance of these regions, saying, “Carl…has the advantage of a home base of votes that is larger than Moore’s.” While there is no polling to offer exact data on the district, name recognition for both men is likely higher in the areas that they have previously served.
Moore and Carl share many similar political traits, but some differences might become prominent in the campaign. Moore presented himself to the race against Carl claiming, “I am a true conservative, and the system doesn’t like a true conservative.” Carl responded to Moore’s statement by pointing to his record of “delivering conservative results,” while also touting his opposition to Democratic President Joe Biden, saying, “I’m not afraid to fight Biden’s radical, out of touch ideas or whatever else comes my way.” Both candidates are also united in the 2024 presidential race, having both endorsed Donald Trump. However, the two candidates do have some differences beyond their rhetoric. Professor Taylor assesses that “Moore is the more conservative of the two by various metrics, not that Carl is liberal.” This could be partly due to Moore’s affiliation with the conservative House Freedom Caucus, which includes prominent conservative Republican Representatives like Lauren Boebert (CO-3) and Jim Jordan (OH-4) in its ranks. Also, some measurements recognize Moore as more conservative than Carl, such as Voteview, which is maintained by the Department of Political Science and Social Science Computing at the University of California at Los Angeles. Information on voteview.com measures Moore as more conservative than 76% of Republican colleagues, while it places Carl as more conservative than 55% of Republican colleagues. Carl is still rated as more conservative than 77% of members of the U.S. House as a whole, but his lower rating among Republicans compared to Moore may be taken into account by some primary voters.
Federal Election Commission reports from September 30th show Moore’s campaign with $647,275.84 on hand and Carl’s campaign with $869,297.36 on hand. However, Carl’s campaign owes $294,953.07 in debt. Although the campaigns are similarly matched with cash on hand, Carl’s campaign raised and spent more money this year, with $1,197,980.05 in receipts and $782,580.51 in disbursements over the first three quarters of 2023, versus Moore’s $343,654.82 in receipts and $159,176.46 in disbursements. Another place to look for fundraising is in the candidates’ leadership PACs. Carl’s Conservative American Republican Leadership (CARL) PAC reported $58,258.39 on hand by June 30, while Moore’s Trustworthy Republicans Always Serve Humbly PAC reported only $7,499.00 on hand.
Arizona’s 8th District Republican Primary
With Republican Representative Debbie Lesko retiring, many Republicans are running to represent Arizona’s 8th district. The primary includes former statewide nominees and members of the state legislature.
Generally speaking, Arizona’s 8th district, which is located in the Phoenix suburbs of populous Maricopa County, typically votes for Republican candidates. The district supported Donald Trump by 13.4 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. In 2022, Lesko won her primary unopposed, and she won 96.5% of the general election vote against two Democratic write-in candidates. In 2024, the Republican nominee will face more than a write-in challenge, as multiple Democrats have launched campaigns. Additionally, Jacob Chansley, who is widely known as the ‘QAnon Shaman’ of the January 6, 2021 incident in the U.S. Capitol, is planning to run as a Libertarian candidate.
Lesko has endorsed state House Speaker Ben Toma in the 2024 Republican primary for the 8th district seat. Toma’s message to Republican voters stresses his experience as a legislator. In an announcement posted on X, Toma tells Republicans, “Just as I have led the Republican caucus in the Arizona State House, I will work tirelessly to unify our party in Congress and advance a conservative agenda to change the direction of our country.”
Two unsuccessful Republican statewide candidates from 2022 have also joined the primary after commonly appearing alongside each other during the 2022 cycle. Former Attorney General nominee Abraham Hamadeh joined the 2024 race only hours after Lesko’s retirement announcement. Hamadeh fell only 280 votes short of Democrat Kris Mayes during the 2022 Attorney General election, a result which he attempted to overturn before the Arizona Supreme Court. Hamadeh connected his 2024 campaign to the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, saying, “President Trump is under attack. He needs back up – and I’m ready to help him Make America Great Again.” Hamadeh is endorsed by 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who is now running for Arizona’s U.S. Senate seat. 2022 U.S. Senate nominee Blake Masters is also running in the 8th district primary. Masters lost to Democratic Senator Mark Kelly in 2022 by a 51.4%-46.5% margin. In his campaign announcement for Congress, Masters also tied himself to Trump, saying “Biden has failed. We need Trump back. We need to stop inflation, Build the Wall, avoid WW3, and secure Arizona’s water future. We need to fight for our families.” In the realm of endorsements, Masters touts the backing of “antiestablishment conservative” Representative Paul Gosar (AZ-9), who represents another Maricopa County-based congressional district. While Toma lives in Peoria within the 8th district, Hamadeh lives in Scottsdale and Masters lives in Tucson, both of which are located outside of the district.
Between Masters, Hamadeh, and Toma, a poll by National Public Affairs found Hamadeh with 31% support, followed by Masters’ 24% support and Toma’s 11% support. However, the primary field is larger than these three candidates. Former Representative Trent Franks is running for Lesko’s seat after resigning from Congress in 2017 amid an ethics controversy. According to Morgan Fischer of the Arizona Republic, Franks “approached two female staffers about potentially acting as a surrogate for him and his wife” during his previous tenure in Congress, a request which allegedly left the staffers “unsure if Franks was asking to impregnate them through sexual intercourse with him or in vitro fertilization.” In response to the controversy, Franks stated in 2017, “I deeply regret that my discussion of this option and process in the workplace caused distress.” In launching his 2024 campaign for his old seat, Franks explained his intent to work “in a wiser, more dedicated way than ever before.” State Senator Anthony Kern, who attempted to be one of eleven “alternate electors” to cast Arizona’s electoral votes for Donald Trump after the 2020 presidential election, is another candidate aiming for Lesko’s seat. Kern launched his campaign by saying, “My mission in serving Arizona is to uphold those values by securing our elections, securing our border, and securing our constitutional freedoms like choice in education, the right to bear arms, and the right to life for the unborn.”
Opinion columnist Laurie Roberts of the Arizona Republic believes that Masters, Hamadeh, and Toma are likely to be the top three candidates in this race. Roberts claims that the race “is shaping up to be the clash of the traveling titans,” noting that Hamadeh and Masters are currently the most prominent candidates despite living outside of the district. Roberts argues that Hamadeh “likely has the upper hand,” given Lake’s endorsement. However, Roberts points to Toma as the most likely to break through Masters and Hamadeh, given his residency in the district and his “key role in cutting income taxes and creating a universal school voucher program.”
Delaware’s At-Large District Democratic Primary
Delaware is one of only six states that has a single at-large congressional district, making the position of U.S. Representative function as a statewide office. Because of this, opportunities to run for Congress in the state are rare and competitive. Since 2000, Delaware has been represented by only three different people in the U.S. House of Representatives, as most elections featured dominant incumbents winning by double-digit percentage points. In 2024, Democratic Representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is running for Delaware’s open U.S. Senate seat, which is being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Tom Carper. Rochester’s Senate campaign means that Delaware’s at-large district must elect a new Representative.
In the 2020 presidential election, Delaware voted for Democrat Joe Biden by 19 percentage points. In 2022, Rochester won reelection to Congress by 12.5 percentage points. Given Delaware’s most recent election history, Democrats are likely to hold the at-large district in 2024. However, Democrats in Delaware have a few choices to nominate in their primary for the seat.
The most prominent candidate in the Democratic primary is state Senator Sarah McBride, who has already made history as the first openly transgender state legislator in the United States. McBride also has a strong relationship with President Joe Biden, a fellow Delawarean who has said that he is “proud” of the 33-year-old’s success in the state. Myah Ward of POLITICO reports that McBride “has directly shaped Biden’s personal and political evolution on transgender issues.” However, McBride is cautious to focus her campaign on her transgender identity, instead stressing that she is a “multi-dimensional human being.” On her campaign website, some of McBride’s priorities include marijuana legalization, “attracting green jobs,” banning “assault weapons and high capacity magazines,” and passing federal protections for abortion access. McBride is endorsed by three of Delaware’s statewide elected officials, Attorney General Kathy Jennings, Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro, and Auditor Lydia York, as well as progressive organizations like EMILY’s List, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, Equality PAC, and Human Rights Campaign.
McBride is facing state Treasurer Colleen Davis and Delaware State Housing Authority Director Eugene Young in the Democratic primary. Like McBride, the campaign websites of both Davis and Young stress the issue of abortion as a key focus. Davis’ website primarily discusses her experience in handling state finances as state Treasurer, while Young’s website touts his experience in affordable housing. Young’s website also lists priorities such as establishing a $15 federal minimum wage, repealing the Hyde Amendment to allow federal funding for abortions, and advancing “Green New Deal” and “Medicare for All” policies.
Polling for the Democratic primary is scarce, but available. A Change Research poll was commissioned by the Human Rights Campaign Equality Votes PAC and conducted in September, finding 44% support for McBride, 23% support for Young, and 13% support for Davis. According to this poll, 62% of the Democratic primary electorate is female, 70% is over 50 years old, 59% is White, and 32% is Black or African American. Pollsters allowed respondents to choose three policy priorities. “Healthcare” (42%) was the top priority, followed by “gun control” (40%), and a three-way tie between “reproductive rights,” “racism and discrimination,” and “climate change” (36%).
According to the September 30 FEC filings, McBride’s campaign had $567,500.05 on hand, with $778,846.68 in receipts and $211,346.63 in disbursements, signaling an early advantage in fundraising. Young’s campaign reported $136,560.79 on hand and Davis’ campaign reported $83,768.78 on hand.
The only candidate in the Republican primary is Air Force veteran and small business owner Donyale Hall. Hall has unsuccessfully run for Lieutenant Governor, state Senate, and Dover City Council in the past, and faces an uphill climb in 2024 if nominated.
Illinois’ 7th District Democratic Primary
82-year-old Democratic Representative Danny Davis has represented his Chicago-based congressional district since 1997. The aging congressman’s 2022 reelection primary against gun violence prevention activist Kina Collins was decided by less than 1,000 votes, possibly motivating challengers to line up against him for 2024. Given that Davis ran unopposed in the 2022 general election and no Republicans are running in the district in 2024, this election is likely to be decided in the Democratic primary.
Davis’ perceived vulnerability in his campaign for a 15th term has attracted five primary challengers, including Collins and Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin. Collins and Conyears-Ervin are the most prominent candidates in the race, joined by former Barack Obama campaign staffer Khouri Marshall, educator Nikhil Bhatia, and businessman Kip Knutson. According to Collins, “People smell a bit of blood in the water and they want to join in on the primary” following her 2022 performance.
In 2022, Davis scored establishment support from Democratic leaders like President Joe Biden, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, and then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. At the time, Biden touted Davis’ experience as “an effective leader and lawmaker who is deeply rooted in his community.” Meanwhile, Collins focused her 2022 campaign against Democratic leadership, alleging that despite black women being the “backbone of the Democratic Party,” party leaders “pony up resources” against black female candidates. Justice Democrats, the group that endorsed progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14) in her successful 2018 Democratic primary bid against then-Representative Joseph Crowley, backed Collins in 2022. The 2024 campaign might feature similar debates over the octogenarian Davis’ experience and the 32-year-old Collins’ vision of “a leader who will take on challenges with a fresh approach.” Conyears-Ervin enters the race as an elected Chicago official, but she is recovering from allegations that she misused taxpayer dollars and public staffers as City Treasurer. The case was closed with a $100,000 settlement paid to former city employees.
The 2024 primary includes more candidates than the 2022 primary. In 2022, U.S. Food and Drug Administration compliance officer Denarvis Mendenhall was the only candidate to receive votes aside from Davis and Collins, totaling 2.4% support. In 2024, the field could have a larger split of votes with six candidates. However, Davis is committed to “campaign on what he has done,” according to his chief of staff, Tumia Romero.
For an incumbent, Davis’ fundraising leaves plenty to be desired. The congressman’s campaign reported $228,698.98 on hand on September 30. Conyears-Ervin’s campaign reported $233,922.92 on hand, but her receipts totaled $382,766.57, compared to $215,349.12 for Davis. Collins’ campaign registered with the FEC on July 7, so her current report may not accurately represent her campaign. By September 30, Collins’ campaign reported $49,819.41 in receipts and $42,638.13 in disbursements, ending with $7,181.28 on hand.