By Nathanael Griffon 
Photo Credit: Michael M. Santiago/getty images/Amanda K. Bailey
In the wake of one of the most contentious elections in recent memory, a renewed Donald Trump will be returning to the White House this month after a victory over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. Given the polling numbers and media coverage of both campaigns, the American public predicted this election would be a nail-biter. Many Americans woke up on November 6th to find that it was a rather concise and definitive result, marking one of the most notable political comebacks in American history. This election also marked the first time since George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004 that a Republican has won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. Reflecting on the outcome of this election, his contentious 2016 victory, and past elections of the modern political era, one may ask: “How did he pull it off?”
Back in 2012 in the aftermath of Barack Obama’s reelection victory over Mitt Romney, a glum Republican Party began soul-searching for a candidate or strategy that could stand a chance at breaking the Obama Coalition. Former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said, “There’s no one reason we lost. Our message was weak; our ground game was insufficient; we weren’t inclusive.” The 2012 GOP platform consisted of rhetoric that is somewhat unrecognizable compared to what it is today. It made a point to eliminate the budget deficit and lower the national debt substantially. Among other changes, a standout position shift are ideas about trade and its effect on the economy. Romney’s platform stated “International trade is crucial for our economy. It means more American jobs, higher wages, and a better standard of living.” His platform continued by criticizing the status quo, claiming “The current Administration’s slowness in completing agreements begun by its predecessor and its failure to pursue any new trade agreements with friendly nations” was problematic. Despite free trade being a focal point in Romney’s campaign, this once core principle of Republican policy has become few and far between in the Republican Party 12 years later.
Realizing the party needed to change in order to stay competitive in a post-Obama America, the GOP pivoted. Fast forward to 2015. The American people watched businessman Donald Trump descend down a golden escalator at Trump Tower, declaring his candidacy for the Republican nomination and President of the United States. His new populist messaging stood in contrast to the Republican establishment’s neoliberal and neoconservative views from past and current candidates like Rick Santorum, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz. As it became evident Trump would secure the Republican nomination, the party platform soon realigned with his political beliefs. The 2016 Republican Party platform reflected this new ethos of conservative politics. While the 2012 platform endorsed free trade as a way of keeping the United States in the position of being the sole global superpower, the 2016 platform made a point to mention some of the downsides of U.S. trade policy as well as concern over its negative impact on the American economy. The platform stated “international trade is crucial for all sectors of America’s economy. Massive trade deficits are not,” further arguing that “We need better negotiated trade agreements that put America first.”
Although Trump’s economic policy called for a harsh reevaluation of the party’s previous support for free trade, his 2016 policy platform retained the party’s standard views on social issues such as abortion and the environment, however he stood on the more progressive side when it came to same-sex marriage compared to other Republicans. With the 2015 Supreme Court case Obergefell v. Hodges, which legalized same-sex marriage nationally, still fresh in public memory, Republicans made it a key issue to undo the court’s decision. Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said in his 2015 presidential bid that “the only alternative left for the American people is to support an amendment to the U.S. Constitution to reaffirm the ability of the states to continue to define marriage.” Opposition to same-sex marriage was such an important policy position to the point where there’s an entire section in the 2016 Republican policy platform dedicated to railing against the Supreme Court’s decision. When looking at the party platform in 2024, language discussing or surrounding same-sex marriage is completely absent from their policy goals, while Republican politicians have chosen to leave the topic behind and focus on other social and economic subjects.
Opposition to abortion was once a pillar of Republican beliefs, as it was mentioned 54 times between the 2012 and 2016 platforms. The call to action from Republicans during this time was to ban federal funding for abortion and for the landmark Supreme Court case Roe v. Wade to be overturned in order to return the issue of abortion to the states. The Supreme Court decided in the 2022 case of Dobbs v. Jackson that all abortion issues would be given back to the states, overturning Roe v. Wade. In the wake of this decision, the Republicans went on to a poor performance in the 2022 midterms, showing that their position on the abortion topic was far more of a political liability than they once believed. Given the lukewarm results, many Republicans chose to avoid the abortion topic as a whole, seeing that further action on the subject would only prove disadvantageous and as a result, the word “abortion” is only mentioned once in the 2024 platform. One surprise endorsement of abortion rights within the Republican movement was First Lady Melania Trump herself, where she declared “It is imperative to guarantee that women have autonomy in deciding their preference of having children, based on their own convictions, free from any intervention or pressure from the government.”
In the 2024 presidential election, many voters cited immigration and border security as a key factor when deciding who to vote for. The Trump campaign capitalized on this issue and took a much more conservative stance on immigration compared to elections in the past, particularly in 2012, when the party platform mentioned expanding visas to more immigrants with high levels of education and college degrees. Overall, the tone in which immigration was discussed in 2012 is far more concerned with using immigration to the advantage of the United States regarding the economy, even making a point to say:
“Just as immigrant labor helped build our country in the past, today’s legal immigrants are making vital contributions in every aspect of our national life. Their industry and commitment to American values strengthens our economy, enriches our culture, and enables us to better understand and more effectively compete with the rest of the world.”
The message from this year’s election was a far cry from the neutral to positive tone about immigrants in 2012, instead opting to go along with the Trump approach of bearing down on the topic of illegal immigration as a threat to national security. Throughout the 2024 campaign, the Republican party’s use of illegal immigration as a campaign message was very strategic, as they were able to frame it as a safety and security concern. The overall message can be summed up by Trump saying Biden’s policies were overly permissive; Trump branded the crimes committed by immigrants who are in the country illegally as “Biden migrant crime.”
Looking at the future beyond a second Trump presidency draws the question of whether the Republican party will be able to ride the wave of Trump’s populist positions once he is no longer in office. Since he is term-limited and unable to run in 2028, it begs the question of what the American people will think of his policies once they are enacted and he is no longer President. Another question to ponder is who will be able to pick up the mantle for the GOP and continue Trump’s agenda into the future. However, it seems clear that the Republican party has entered a new phase of its evolution. It has become more diverse and younger, and leadership at the top is starting to reflect that. Trump opting for J.D. Vance as his running mate instead of his first Vice President, Mike Pence, marks this shift toward a new Republican party. When Vance officially becomes Vice President in January, he will be the third youngest VP in American History. From what we can see, the old Republican Party of Bush, Reagan, and McCain is gone, but will the American people respond to these new Republicans in the same manner that they responded to Donald Trump or will the party be forced to pivot once again, leaving Donald Trump simply as a product of his time? Only time and the electorate will tell.