By Elias Barcena John Locker, Getty Images
The countdown is on. With 80 days to go until election day (November 5th), the presidential race is starting to develop intensely. Candidates are making their case as to why they deserve to earn votes and win the presidency. Voters are eager to express their opinions at the ballot box and according to a recent poll by YouGov, inflation, the economy, and immigration are the most prominent concerns among voters. Both candidates are spending hundreds of millions of dollars in order to exceed 270 electoral votes and this election is shaping up to result in record voter turnout.
Following Joe Biden’s debate performance in late June, turmoil ensued within Washington, D.C.. Top Democrats quickly began to question whether Biden was able to compete against the Trump ticket. It was only 24 days later, on July 21st, that Joe Biden announced he planned not to accept the Democratic nomination which he won handily in the Democratic primaries. In a subsequent post on X, Biden urged Democrats to rally their support behind Vice President Kamala Harris. Soon after, nearly all Democrats pledged their support for Harris’s candidacy despite some outside talk from challengers, including former Democrat and now independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who discussed the possibility of being named the Democratic nominee. An official virtual roll call on August 6th confirmed that Kamala Harris had secured the amount of delegates needed in order to receive the Democratic nomination. After vetting prominent Democrats to join her ticket, including Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kamala Harris announced that the winner of the dubbed “veepstakes” was Tim Walz, the Governor of Minnesota. Walz, a military veteran, union supporter, and former educator and football coach, has gained national name recognition in recent weeks. An ABC/IPSOS poll conducted before the VP nominee vetting process revealed that nine out of ten people did not know enough about Walz to form an opinion about him. YouGov national polling and a NYT/Sienna poll conducted in swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) both later showed a Walz favorability rating that surpassed his unfavorability rating by 11 points. Despite this, Walz’s history has been called under question by the Republican ticket. Walz has recently been criticized following the spread of a video where he says he carried “weapons of war, in war”, despite never being deployed to an active combat zone.
Across the aisle, former President Donald Trump officially accepted the nomination from the Republican Party to be their candidate in the 2024 presidential election, only 6 days after the assassination attempt against him in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assassination attempt claimed the life of Corey Comparatore, injured three people (including Trump), and resulted in the death of the shooter. Analysis conducted by ABC showed Trump received a “small bump” in polling favorability following the Butler assassination attempt, with his favorability increasing to 40% which was several percentage points higher across the country. During the four day Republican National Convention, which took place in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Trump announced that J.D. Vance, the junior U.S. Senator from Ohio, would be joining him on the ticket as his running mate. Vance, a former Marine and Ohio State University and Yale Law School graduate, rose to popularity with the release of his novel Hillbilly Elegy, a New York Times bestseller. A former Trump critic, Vance has described himself as a populist and a member of the post-liberal right. Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as a running mate received mixed feedback but he was met with applause at the RNC. An analysis by Boston University showed that Vance could prove beneficial, as he has established himself as a young midwestern lawyer, senator, and an esteemed author who can connect with the base of the Republican Party. On the other hand, comments such as the ones made in a 2021 Fox interview, where he said that the country was being run by “childless cat ladies”, has come under scrutiny.
The Issues
While both candidates seem to understand the significance of capitalizing on issues regarding the economy, they differ in strategy implementation. Though the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) signed by President Trump in 2017 is set to expire in 2025, both candidates are attempting to implement new tax policy. Harris has yet to publish a comprehensive platform but she has a history of championing progressive economic policies, including her focus on rising housing prices, advocating for paid family leave, and sponsoring free-tuition for low and middle income students. On August 16th, Harris laid out her goals regarding the economy at a rally in North Carolina, saying she plans to roll out numerous tax breaks, including a $6,000 tax credit for new parents and reliefs for home buyers. She has also said that she plans to ban grocery price gouging and eliminate tax on tips, a policy first introduced by former President Trump which has garnered bipartisan support. Trump has continuously criticized the Biden-Harris campaign’s effort to bring down inflation, and has pledged to slash prices, eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, and enact a 10% tariff on foreign products, as well as a 60% tariff specifically on Chinese imports. Trump also pledged to resume oil drilling and fracking on U.S. federal lands which he claims will be a large boost to the energy sector of the economy and reduce energy bills for all Americans.
As for immigration, Harris’s position has changed from when she first ran for office in 2020. When campaigning four and a half years ago, she held a more progressive stance on immigration, such as shutting down immigration detention centers. In 2021, President Biden rolled back numerous Trump immigration policies, something Trump has been critical of while on the campaign trail and at the June debate with Biden. In 2021, Biden tasked Harris with leading the administration’s diplomatic efforts to address the problem at the southern border. In this role, Harris spearheaded the initiative that led to “Central America Forward”, a private partnership promising over $5.2 billion in private sector commitments to Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador in an effort to improve their economies and diminish illegal immigration to the United States. In addition to this, Harris has also been critical of former President Trump, alleging he “killed” a bipartisan border bill that would have provided tougher asylum and border laws, for political gain. In response, Trump has said the bill simply did not do enough, and that he’d rather have “no bill than a bad bill.” During his speech at the Republican National Convention, Trump vowed to shut down the Southern border by finishing the border wall and increase security. Trump has also taken a firm stance to roll out a mass deportation plan throughout the country, as migrant encounters at the U.S-Mexico border reaches record-high numbers.
Another critical issue that both campaigns have been fierce on is abortion rights, which has an especially significant effect on the vote of suburban women. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade with the Dobbs decision in 2022, the question of abortion restrictions has been left to the states to decide. States like Minnesota, for example, have passed laws protecting abortion rights with no limitations. On the other hand, abortion is completely illegal in 14 states with little to no exceptions. Trump has praised his work regarding his nomination of Supreme Court Justices Gorsuch, Barrett, and Kavanaugh, who all voted in favor of the Dobbs decision. On the other hand, Harris has pledged to “protect reproductive freedoms” by restoring Roe v. Wade through legislation, notwithstanding such legislation must get through Congress.
Paths to Victory
The following analysis is composed by an average of 5 polls (NYT/Sienna, Cook Political/BGS, AARP, Redfield and Wilton, Bloomberg) by 270towin.com
With 38 of the 50 states voting for the same political party since the 2000 election, the remaining states are dubbed “battleground states,” where candidates dedicate significantly more attention. In this campaign cycle, there are seven states that are seen as key in determining who will hold the nation’s highest office for the next four years.
The political viability of Kamala Harris becoming the next president of the United States has surged in recent weeks. Since President Biden dropped out, Harris has erased Trump’s lead in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Though polling in all of these states remain within the margin of error, there are two clear paths that Kamala Harris can follow in order to be named President on November 5th according to polling analysts. Harris can secure the presidency either by securing the Sun Belt states (Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada), or capturing the three states in the Rust Belt region (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan). Alternatively, President Trump would need to secure states from both regions to win the presidency.
Despite Florida being seen as a new Republican stronghold, recent polling shows Trump’s lead has been cut down significantly in the state, with Harris now within the margin of error. Ballot initiatives in Florida, such as Amendment 3 (amendment to legalize the recreational use of marijuana) and Amendment 4 (amendment to limit government interference on abortion) may play a role in voter turnout and subsequently how the Sunshine State will allocate its electoral college votes. Similar ballot initiatives in Arizona and Missouri may have similar effects.
At the moment, if polling were to prove accurate, Harris could secure 271 electoral votes and is just slightly considered the favorite to obtain the presidency. It is notable to mention that Trump has outperformed pre-election polling in both of his previous presidential campaigns. In 2016, polling showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton to be the overwhelming favorite, and the 2020 presidential race resulted in a much tighter win for Biden than polling had expected.
With the election taking place in 80 days, there is plenty of time for either candidate to take a significant lead in their efforts to obtain control of the executive branch for the next four years. The Democratic National Convention is scheduled to take place from August 19-22 in Chicago, Illinois, where Harris, Walz, and Joe Biden are all expected to speak. Alternatively, both Trump and Vance will be hitting the campaign trail, hosting rallies in Arizona and North Carolina this week.